What is luck?

[RedRagToAnOrc]

I've been playing a bit on my Xbox 360 recently and was having a run of extremely bad 'luck'. Prone as I am in such situations, I got slightly peeved and was about to leave the game in disgust when my older brother - wise and philosophical as he is ;) - started to talk about what luck really was.

So, what is 'luck'? Many people in Warcraft who cannot attribute their own losses to failure on their respective parts, such as myself, claim that luck is an important part of Warcraft. But why are some players more lucky than others? Why do I only ever seem to have bad 'luck', and never good luck?

Well, I started to think about it. The conclusion my brother arrived at is that your perception of luck is based on your mindset, your optimism/pessimism and primarily whether you are relaxed. Think of a situation in the past where you have been relaxed. You probably enjoyed yourself more then, and noticed things that you wouldn't have if you were in a slightly worse mood. Whereas, think back to a time where you had that really bad losing streak, or where you simply couldn't kill that damn Far Seer. Were you relaxed? Or were you on the edge of your seat, willing that last hit?

I know I was.

So, much as I don't want to accept my brother's views - being as he is my brother ;) - maybe he was right. But why are some players lucky? Why do some people know where you are? Well, a solid knowledge of the game helps. Say you're in a Human vs Undead matchup, playing Undead. You pick up a skeleton rod with your Death Knight and head off to harrass. Where do you look? Why, the first green creep camp of course. Not there? The Human player will be militia creeping. Check the most likely spots, and if he isn't in any of those and has fooled you, then take the easy way out and peasant harrass. Just before you reach Tier 2, send a scout to the Human player's non-natural expansion point and head over to the natural with your DK, because the Human player will probably be expanding.

Such is the mindset of a professional. Knowing creeping patterns is a huge part of 'luck' as I was once taught by the player who turned out the be the chieftain of my future clan. Every time I went to creep, he seemed to know where I was. It was uncanny, and I could have called maphack or luck, except for the fact that he was talking about natural creeping patterns. And he had a point. Scouting, wards, and clever placement of units can help greatly. All this contributes towards 'luck'.

Then there's the matter of unit counters. I tower rushed an orc recently who went Mirror Image first, in my eyes a great counter because you can't focus down the hero easily without pausing to look at which one is the right one first. Naturally, I was annoyed. But I watched the replay, and you know what? He had scouted my base and waited to see if I tower rushed. I did, and he went Mirror Image. The guy was clever.

So we've established that luck is a combination of relaxation and knowledge of the game. So why do I always get bad luck instead of good? Apart from the aforementioned factors, I am a natural born pessimist. As my brother said, and I reluctantly accepted, pessimists see the worst side of life - and so when I can't get that last hit on that bleedin' Far Seer, I may well be overlooking the fact that my opponent is feeling exactly the same about mine.

Anyway, that was an interesting ramble. Are you an optimist or a pessimist? Do you agree with mine (and my brother's) views? I'm interested to hear your thoughts.

-- Redrag

[GenocideAlive]

Luck is largely a mindset, but not in the way your brother was waxing philisophical.

For instance, you happen upon him moving away from a creepcamp early tier 2 and try to engage, succeeding in only harming him slightly and wasting some of his mana.

Was this lucky?

From your perspective, it wasn't very lucky at all--nothing came of it and you didn't gain any edge other than to bug him a bit. You came just a bit too late to jack him and a little too early to get him at his next nearby camp.

From his perspective, you were lucky because you happened upon his creepcamp without actually intending to find him there. You also managed to force him back to base to heal up. If you'd have been a little later, you would have never seen him and he would have gotten away scot-free.

It's the nature of the beast--if you win a giant pile of Grade A cowshit you don't feel lucky at all. If you're a farmer, there's a good chance you might feel very lucky.

Luck is a part of Warcraft, not much can be done about it. But once you get better you'll find that luck plays less and less of a factor, because there are actions you can do to cut back on their opportunities to take advantage of you while you're vulnerable.

Or you could just be like me, and as soon as you alt-QQ can identify your error but are doomed to repeat it over and over. :)

[Prozerran]

Or you could just be like me, and as soon as you alt-QQ can identify your error but are doomed to repeat it over and over. :)

Maybe I missed something with this last tidbit, but refresh me on exactly what alt-QQ does...

[RedRagToAnOrc]

Maybe I missed something with this last tidbit, but refresh me on exactly what alt-QQ does...

Quits the game.

Here's another one. I press the windows key instead of Alt (as happens in about 5% of my games) and Alt-Tab out to the desktop. My computer, being slow and having been on for 3/4 hours, takes a minute or so to get back in, by which time I lose my army and as a result of that the game. Is that luck, or is that a mistake?

[GenocideAlive]

Maybe I missed something with this last tidbit, but refresh me on exactly what alt-QQ does...
It quits the game and dumps you back into the chatrooms.

And RedRag, it's stupidity. Take the fucking key off when you're playing if it's that unavoidable and it costs you games.

[mAnbimanimanimA]

it's stupidity
It is stupidity, making it a mistake, but still the opposing players could think of themselves as lucky, no? :)

This thread reminds me of that day when I first massed gargs and chased the DH all the way to the base, only to have him on 2 hp and getting to the wells, boom instantly back to full hp \o/ That WAS indeed luck in that the gargs could have randomed better damage and the DH COULD have died, BUT I was stupid enough to go ahead and take the risk (I lost a bunch of gargs since the Panda came back on the way -.-) which also made it my own mistake. Myself, I wouldn't even call that lucky, as I had the chance to not end up like that, and the situation would've been different if I commanded the gargs to fly back :c

But what would be lucky then? For example, human mirror. Both players doing the exact same creeping pattern, but the other guy getting a replenishment potion and the other guy getting a wand of LS from green creeps, there it's definitely luck (which probably is even going to have a big effect on the output of the game).

[RedRagToAnOrc]

And RedRag, it's stupidity. Take the fucking key off when you're playing if it's that unavoidable and it costs you games.

You're talking to me like I know how to do it. I'm 15, remember. I play games, I don't really experiment with that sort of thing. Better to leave it alone if you don't know how in my experience of things.

And yes, I completely agree with you, Wisp/Manbi. But arguably, the Replenishment Potion could be sold and replaced by 75 gold, which may then allow you to build extra stuff faster and make up for the Lightning Shield advantage. Admittedly, it's a long shot, but it could make a small difference against a lower level player.

[GenocideAlive]

Take your fingers, and pull the key off. I know you're only 15, but c'mon, my son knows how to do this and he's 2. If you find your fingers too ill-coordinated, use a flathead screwdriver. :rolleyes:

[RedRagToAnOrc]

Take your fingers, and pull the key off. I know you're only 15, but c'mon, my son knows how to do this and he's 2. If you find your fingers too ill-coordinated, use a flathead screwdriver. :rolleyes:

Oh. You mean literally take the key off. :D

[GenocideAlive]

You can't press it if it's not there, right? Or at least it provides a large enough differential to permit you tangible on-the-fly recognition.

[Yoda]

I wouldn't exactly recommend tearing keys off the keyboard, just to play Warcraft.

And yes, there are many examples where one side could see something as "good luck for the other player" and the other could see it as "bad luck for me."

What is often "bad luck" is when I misclick. I have never, so far, misclicked at a Tavern and picked the wrong hero. But I have misclicked on hero skills, such as put the first Panda point on Drunken Brawler. That was annoying. :mad: Its also lucky when you find someones hidden farm, or expansion, by complete accident.

[RedRagToAnOrc]

I wouldn't exactly recommend tearing keys off the keyboard, just to play Warcraft.

And yes, there are many examples where one side could see something as "good luck for the other player" and the other could see it as "bad luck for me."

What is often "bad luck" is when I misclick. I have never, so far, misclicked at a Tavern and picked the wrong hero. But I have misclicked on hero skills, such as put the first Panda point on Drunken Brawler. That was annoying. :mad: Its also lucky when you find someones hidden farm, or expansion, by complete accident.

Use hotkeys, it's better. Although I did choose Hawk once first with Beastmaster instead of Quilbeast. But I'm sure you see my point. Misclicks can be cut down on through experience of the game and use of hotkeys.

You could also argue that if you passed that point in the first place it wasn't an accident, because you were going somewhere anyway and you just happened to see it. Think of it as backseat scouting.

[GenocideAlive]

I wouldn't exactly recommend tearing keys off the keyboard, just to play Warcraft.
You know they snap right back on, right? What you're saying is basically the equivalent of "I wouldn't take my lego wall apart, just because it's bulky and in the way".

[mAnbimanimanimA]

Or you could just UTFG.

For example, the first result for "disable windows key" http://johnhaller.com/jh/useful_stuff/disable_windows_key/ and there you have the solution ;o

[Yoda]

You know they snap right back on, right? What you're saying is basically the equivalent of "I wouldn't take my lego wall apart, just because it's bulky and in the way".

Maybe my keyboard is different to yours. But my keys both a) don't look easy to take off, and b) Would be much easier to take off once you'd done it by force. But perhaps you're more comfortable with computers than me. Btw, your lego metaphor is not true in this example.

I had an experience of "luck" just then: I creepjacked someone, by accident, at the fountain where the enemy orc had just lost half their army to creeps. But it was bad luck because I never managed to kill their BM.

[RedRagToAnOrc]

I had an experience of "luck" just then: I creepjacked someone, by accident, at the fountain where the enemy orc had just lost half their army to creeps. But it was bad luck because I never managed to kill their BM.

Good luck perhaps that you jacked them, not bad luck that you didn't kill their BM. Of course, it depends on the circumstances. If he was spamming the W hotkey because he needed to mana for Wind Walk and got away with 10hp, as I did in a recent game against my brother but with Warden (Blink), then yes, that may well be bad luck. Not killing the BM isn't just bad luck, you could have spent time focusing his army.

[GenocideAlive]

Yeah, I read that strategy on the WCR Forums. It was funny.

DR is becoming more and more popular for Orc versus Human, presumably for the power creeping and silencing casters, but I don't buy it. Could someone explain that?
For use by Orc, I assume you mean. The explanation of course would be that you could use the DR and skellies to tank dmg from creeps and use the Silence to prevent the sorcs and priests from fucking you in the ass as soon as combat starts.

Good idea, but in practice I doubt it works. I'd simply move one priest off to the side, and as soon as you silence, I cast Dispel on the group of casters and said sodomy would commence. The DR is a poor substitute for the FS, obviously...and would probably have its primary function in just something different. Getting your skellies dispelled for exp or control magicked would be horrid.

[Yoda]

Good luck perhaps that you jacked them, not bad luck that you didn't kill their BM. Of course, it depends on the circumstances. If he was spamming the W hotkey because he needed to mana for Wind Walk and got away with 10hp, as I did in a recent game against my brother but with Warden (Blink), then yes, that may well be bad luck. Not killing the BM isn't just bad luck, you could have spent time focusing his army.

I'm not bumping this thread because it is still on the first page, but he had lost 3/4 of his army to the (red) creep camp, but still hadn't managed to kill the highest level one. So I could have afforded to focus fire his BM.

I didn't manage to break his base because he had massed towers afterwards though, which was annoying.